By Kitab Unango, SSMJ Juba, Thursday (September 19, 2024) - As South Sudan grapples with limited access to electricity for its growing population, the ongoing conflict between Ethiopia and downstream nations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) threatens to derail the country's dreams of realizing its power potential. While Ethiopia views the GERD as a cornerstone of its energy strategy, neighboring Egypt and Sudan have voiced concerns about the dam’s impact on their water suppl
By Kitab Unango, SSMJ
Juba, Thursday (September 19, 2024) - As South Sudan grapples with limited access to electricity for its growing population, the ongoing conflict between Ethiopia and downstream nations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) threatens to derail the country's dreams of realizing its power potential.
While Ethiopia views the GERD as a cornerstone of its energy strategy, neighboring Egypt and Sudan have voiced concerns about the dam’s impact on their water supplies. For South Sudan, this dispute presents a potential roadblock to harnessing regional energy resources, critical for electrifying the nation.
Ethiopia has remained firm in its stance to continue filling the GERD reservoir, which has been a source of diplomatic tension since the dam’s construction began in 2011.
Egypt, heavily reliant on the Nile River for its water supply, accuses Ethiopia of violating international law by proceeding without a binding agreement with downstream countries. The dispute escalated further when Egypt sent a formal complaint to the United Nations Security Council.
In response, Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, "Anyone from afar or nearby daring to invade the country would be repelled."
This bold statement reflects the rising tension in the Horn of Africa, where the competition for water and power could have far-reaching implications for regional stability.
South Sudan, which lies further upstream on the Nile, finds itself in a precarious position. With a majority of its population lacking access to electricity, the country has sought to leverage regional power-sharing initiatives, including imports of hydropower deals with Ethiopia.
However, the ongoing GERD conflict has the potential to undermine these efforts, stalling the country’s energy development goals.
Earlier, political analysts warned that South Sudan could become an indirect casualty of this water dispute. In 2021, Dr. Abraham Kuol Nyuon, a prominent political analyst, pointed out that the GRD issue has broader implications for regional cooperation.
"The power dynamics surrounding the GERD dispute go beyond just water rights. South Sudan’s future energy security could be compromised if the tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt remain unresolved," he said.
Indeed, South Sudan’s development depends on stability and cooperation with its neighbors. If the GERD dispute escalates, there is a risk that the region’s political and economic environment could deteriorate, disrupting ongoing energy projects.
As Ethiopia strives to complete the GERD, the region’s ability to maintain cooperative energy-sharing agreements could falter, leaving countries like South Sudan struggling to meet their electricity needs.
The civil society in South Sudan has also raised concerns. Edmund Yakani, a leading civil society activist, stressed the urgency of resolving the GERD conflict.
“For South Sudan to realize its dream of widespread electricity access, the GERD conflict needs to be addressed through diplomatic means. Continued tension not only affects Ethiopia and Egypt but threatens to destabilize the entire region," argued Yakani, who heads the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization (CEPO).
South Sudan’s reliance on regional energy resources makes the GERD issue particularly critical. Any disruption in Ethiopia’s power exports due to ongoing disputes could result in delays or interruptions in South Sudan’s electricity supply.
Currently, the country’s power generation capacity is limited, and without access to reliable electricity, economic development remains hampered.
Currently, only about 7 percent of the South Sudan population has access to electricity, the least in the Horn of Africa region.
Furthermore, the increasing militarization of the region could spell disaster for South Sudan’s long-term development goals. Egypt has been strengthening military ties with Somalia, Ethiopia’s eastern neighbor, as part of its broader strategy to counter Ethiopia’s growing influence in the region.
The possibility of further destabilization could undermine not only South Sudan’s energy security and the continent’s energy transition but also its broader diplomatic relations with key regional players.
Once completed, the GERD will be Africa's largest hydroelectric power plant, a milestone that bodes well for Ethiopia's economic growth.
However, unless diplomatic efforts succeed in reaching a binding agreement between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan, the consequences could be dire—not only for the immediate parties but also for neighboring countries like South Sudan that are still navigating the complexities of regional energy politics.
According to Prime Minister Abiy, Ethiopia remains resolute. But for South Sudan, the stakes are high. As the conflict over the GERD unfolds, the country’s hopes for electrification and economic development hang in the balance, threatened by the prospect of a prolonged and potentially destabilizing dispute.
Only time will tell if diplomacy will be able to unlock the region's energy potential and ensure that South Sudan can illuminate its future.